Idea acabada, que repaso en el historial de Iluminatios y la encuentro acá, acá y acá. La idea es mazo menos esta (me autocito):
En los modelos Keynesianos, los shocks nominales tienen efectos reales porque los precios nominales tienden a ser rígidos. Un aumento en el valor promedio de la inflación genera que las firmas sean propensas a ajustar sus precios mas frecuentemente con el fin de mantenerse en sintonía con la suba generalizada. Por lo tanto, frecuentes variaciones en el nivel de precios implican que estos ajustan mas rápidamente a shocks nominales, dando como resultando que dichos shocks tienen resultados reales menores.
¿De donde sale esto? De una reinterpretacion de la idea de Lucas (73): Individuals were assumed to be more aware of the prices of the goods they produce than they are of the prices of the goods they purchase. They therefore tend to confuse movements in the overall price level(which should not matter) with movements in relative prices (which should matter). An unanticipated inflation leads individuals to infer that the relative prices of the goods they produce are temporarily high, which induces them to increase the quantity supplied. This story thus implies that output depends on the deviation of inflation from expected inflation. In this way, the assumption of imperfect information was used to generate the expectations-augmented Phillips curve of Friedman and Phelps.Luego, Mankiw nos dice: Lucas an later authors show that countries with highly variable aggregate demand have steep Phillips curve. That is, nominal shocks in the countries in the countries have little effect on output.Lucas inteprets this finding as evidence that highly variable demand reduces the perceived relative price changes resulting from nominal shocks. We provide a Keynesian interpretation of Lucas's result:more variable demand, like high average inflation, lead to more frequent price adjustment.
¿De donde sale esto? De una reinterpretacion de la idea de Lucas (73): Individuals were assumed to be more aware of the prices of the goods they produce than they are of the prices of the goods they purchase. They therefore tend to confuse movements in the overall price level(which should not matter) with movements in relative prices (which should matter). An unanticipated inflation leads individuals to infer that the relative prices of the goods they produce are temporarily high, which induces them to increase the quantity supplied. This story thus implies that output depends on the deviation of inflation from expected inflation. In this way, the assumption of imperfect information was used to generate the expectations-augmented Phillips curve of Friedman and Phelps.Luego, Mankiw nos dice: Lucas an later authors show that countries with highly variable aggregate demand have steep Phillips curve. That is, nominal shocks in the countries in the countries have little effect on output.Lucas inteprets this finding as evidence that highly variable demand reduces the perceived relative price changes resulting from nominal shocks. We provide a Keynesian interpretation of Lucas's result:more variable demand, like high average inflation, lead to more frequent price adjustment.
El trabajo al que hacemos referencia es el de Mankiw, Romer y Ball, The New Keynesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade Off. A la pregunta que hacíamos hace poco de porque no es tan buen negocio un alquiler, es precisamente por esto. En un proceso inflacionario no se debe tomar compromisos contractuales de orden económico. Si se requiere de un compromiso, entonces este debe ser del menor tiempo posible. Entonces, por un lado, encontramos a los agentes evitando incurrir en tiempos de mediano plazo para que la inflación no licue los beneficios. Mientras que por el otro, el peor escenario para un gobierno con escalada inflacionaria es contar con una economía de precios flexibles, en otras palabras, poco rígida. Por este motivo, el pacto social pierde. Por este motivo también, los shocks nominales rara vez tienen efectos reales cuando las economías no presentan rigideces nominales o se encuentran cerca del pleno empleo. Por este motivo, las negociaciones salariales intentan ser más frecuentes. Por este motivo, han caído gobiernos. Que las fuerzas del mercado no lo permitan.
PD: Como siempre, el paper esta para el que lo solicíte.
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